Was there a conspiracy? Who benefits from the Turkish operation in Syria

One gets the impression that the plan, course and outcome of the operation of the Turkish Armed Forces "Source of Peace" were agreed in advance between Ankara, Moscow and Washington. 



At first glance, the events in the north-east of Syria within the framework of the Turkish military operation "Source of Peace" are developing unpredictably, impulsively and even to some extent randomly. However, what is happening at this theatre of operations is by no means an indiscriminate Brownian movement of troops and forces of the parties involved in the conflict.

The operation of the Turkish armed forces sometimes looks like coordinated and interconnected in purpose, tasks, place and time, simultaneous and consistent actions of all parties involved in this conflict (of course, with the exception of the Kurdish forces, and the Syrian leadership is informed of what is happening only as say the military, regarding).

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It is not a secret for anyone that even the most informed and competent military observers of various media outlets sometimes have access to no more than 5% of information about events unfolding in the theatre of military operations. For example, the content of the negotiations and the largely unspoken agreements reached (sometimes only verbally) between the leaders of countries that are somehow involved in the conflict (or near it) will become known at best in a few decades.

So, in hot pursuit, at best, it is possible to build only more or less plausible hypotheses, with the help of which it is possible to describe the essence of the events.

To begin with, pay attention to the following fact.

During the operation "Source of Peace," there was not a single incident (either in the air or on the ground) in which the personnel, weapons and materiel of the US Armed Forces, Russian formations, units and units would be damaged by Turkish aviation and artillery fire Syrian government forces.

The Turkish side has denied the earlier information about the shelling of the observation post of the US Armed Forces in northern Syria in the city of Kobani (Ain al-Arab). Moreover, no one was hurt by the Americans - neither people nor technology.

This, it seems, only says that between the main participants in the events (Turkey, Russia, the USA) the relevant agreements were reached earlier and the necessary security measures were clearly identified, as well as communication channels for mutual information were identified. Otherwise, incidents would not have happened - these are just the realities of the war. 10-15% of losses in the course of any military operations are usually losses only from "friendly" fire. What can we say in this case about the armed formations of other countries located in the combat zone?

There is no doubt that, in addition to security measures, Turkey, Russia, and the United States have discussed the areas and lines that the troops of the parties concerned should reach, as well as safe routes for withdrawing American units from combat zones, as well as other parts of the Western coalition.

For example, Syrian compounds were included in a number of cities in the north-east of the country (including Manbij, Kobani and even the former capital of the Islamic State organization banned in Russia (the organization is banned in Russia) - IG - Rikku). The troops of Bashar al-Assad occupied large areas of the territory previously controlled by the Kurds, divisions of the Russian army and military police appeared in the same place - and again, there was not a single incident with the Turkish army.

The United States voluntarily handed over the strategic settlement of Manbij to members of the Russian military police and government forces of the SAR, promptly evacuating its units to the Iraqi border in 24 hours. It would be naive to believe that this happened on the initiative of local American chiefs, who, as you know, would not do without the sanction of higher leadership and half a step

In the same plan, the agreements reached between the US and Turkey on the suspension of the operation in Syria for 120 hours should be considered.

On the one hand, this can be interpreted as a definite success of US foreign policy, and on the other hand, the efforts of both parties to preserve Washington’s political face in this situation, which in these events looks like the losing side, are evident.

On the other hand, the curtailment of the US military presence in this country in this situation from Washington looks quite logical and consistent. The political goals that could be achieved in northeast Syria by the military efforts of two hundred American marines and special forces are completely unclear.

The US bet on the creation of an alternative state in the northeast to the Bashar al-Assad regime turned out to be completely untenable. All the influential players in the Middle East are strongly against this idea - Turkey (first of all), Iraq, Russia, and Iran. In addition, the creation of such a quasi-state would require enormous financial injections from the United States (and with an absolutely unpredictable result), and this is not provided for by the US federal budget.

As a result, we can say this: The United States has not formed a positive agenda for the region, and with the available forces and means of an intelligible result it is impossible to achieve. In addition to the headache for Washington, there is no other result from the military presence in northeast Syria (illegal from the point of view of international military law, we emphasize).

The main beneficiary in this situation is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He has too many levers of influence on the situation. And Western pressure on Turkey will, in any case, be limited. Otherwise, it can lead to unpredictable consequences for NATO , of which Turkey is a member.

Syria will also be a plus, which will return to its control of vast territories in the north-east of the country, which will create further favourable conditions for stabilizing the situation inside the country.

The party that has completely lost in this conflict is the Kurdish formations, they are also Syrian democratic forces. The bet made by the leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces on the USA turned out to be a strategic mistake. And the Kurds simply do not have any other choice but to return to the wing of the legitimate Syrian government.